ULI Survey Scales Back Commercial Real Estate Predictions

By Keith Loria, Contributing Editor

The Urban Land Institute released findings from its second semi-annual survey of the nation’s leading real estate economists and analysts on Wednesday, Sept. 26, and predicted less than hoped for commercial real estate sales in the next three years.

The Real Estate Consensus Forecast surveyed 39 economists and analysts over the period of Aug. 21 to Sept. 14 and examined 26 economic and real estate indicators.

The findings forecasted that properties, such as office buildings, shopping centers and warehouses, will amount to approximately $223 billion in sales this year, $250 billion next year and $275 billion in 2014. That’s down 12 percent from its original estimate from six months ago.

“The predictions diverge from the previous Forecast (from March) in that it is generally less optimistic regarding the economy and the performance of commercial real estate, and more optimistic regarding the single-family housing sector,” said Dean Schwanke, executive director, ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate, Washington, D.C. “Commercial property transaction volume is expected to increase by 21 percent in 2013; the projection was for a 50 percent increase.”

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